Autumn budget 2025: why the time to act is now

The Autumn Budget is one of the UK government’s most significant moments in the economic calendar – a statement not just of policy, but of priorities. Every year, it shapes the tax landscape, public spending, and the regulatory climate in which businesses operate. It is both an opportunity and a risk. And if there’s one truth we’ve learned from decades of public affairs work, it’s this: the Budget is not decided in the days before the Chancellor stands at the despatch box. By that point, it’s already baked. The real work happens now – months in advance, while departmental bids, industry cases, and Treasury negotiations are still live.

For companies, trade bodies, and whole sectors, the period between now and the Chancellor’s announcement in late October or early November is make-or-break. Those who get their requests, evidence, and political narratives into the right hands early will find themselves reflected in policy. Those who wait will watch their competitors – or their critics – set the terms of the debate.

The 2025 context: a challenging fiscal backdrop

This year’s Budget is shaping up to be one of the most difficult in recent memory. The government faces a forecasted £41–51 billion hole in the public finances, according to the National Institute for Economic and Social Research. The Chancellor has committed to not raising income tax, VAT, or national insurance – which means any fiscal gap will have to be closed through other measures. That could mean:

• New or higher duties on targeted sectors (such as gambling, alcohol, high-sugar foods, or carbon-intensive industries).
  
• Reforms to capital gains, pensions, and inheritance tax that shift the tax burden onto investment and wealth.
  
• Spending restraint in departments that are not politically protected.
  

The upshot is that every pound of spending, and every pound of foregone tax, will need to be justified against competing priorities.

Opportunity: influencing policy in your favour

If you have a proposal that could unlock growth, support jobs, or align with the government’s strategic priorities – now is the time to put it forward. Once the Treasury settles its numbers and narrative, it becomes far harder to secure changes.

At Walk Through Walls, we advise our clients to think about influence as a layered process:

1. Departmental engagement – Many Budget measures originate in line departments (Business, Energy, Transport, Health) before they’re agreed with the Treasury. This is where technical detail matters.
   
2. Treasury case-making – The Treasury wants concise, evidence-based proposals that can be costed and justified in fiscal terms. They will prioritise measures that can demonstrate return on investment or cost-neutrality.
   
3. Political momentum – Even the best technical case needs political champions. MPs, select committees, and industry coalitions can build public and parliamentary support that puts pressure on ministers.
   

For example, if your industry is seeking an investment allowance, tax relief, or regulatory change, your communications should already be landing in ministerial inboxes – supported by hard data on economic impact and employment. A quiet conversation now is far more effective than a high-profile plea in October.

Urgency: protecting your sector from harm

Influence cuts both ways. If your industry faces the risk of being targeted for new taxes, regulation, or spending cuts, the time to act is now – not after the red box has been closed. Governments under fiscal strain often look for “easy wins” where political cost is low and revenue impact is high. That can mean focusing on sectors perceived as luxury, harmful, or non-essential.

We’ve seen this before:

• Increases in alcohol duty tied to public health messaging.
  
• Levies on betting and gaming framed as consumer protection.
  
• Carbon taxes on energy-intensive processes positioned as climate leadership.
  

If you suspect your sector could be in the crosshairs, you should already be shaping the conversation. That means building alliances, preparing research on your industry’s contribution to jobs and GDP, and setting out the unintended consequences of poorly designed measures. The earlier you move, the more room there is to steer the policy away from harm – or to secure mitigating measures that protect your business model.

How to influence effectively before the Budget

1. Start with evidence
Treasury officials deal in numbers. Whatever your ask, it needs to be underpinned by robust data: the economic impact, the cost to the Exchequer, and – ideally – the return on investment. This evidence should be independently verifiable and capable of being summarised on a single page.

2. Build your coalition
A lone company can be dismissed as self-interested. A coalition of companies, trade bodies, and employee representatives is harder to ignore. Coalitions also allow you to share research costs and spread your message more widely.

3. Engage early and often
Don’t think of the Budget as a single moment. Think of it as a process that’s already under way. Civil servants are drafting bids now; ministers are setting priorities now; parliamentary committees are taking evidence now.

4. Align with government priorities
Your proposal should fit neatly within the government’s stated goals – whether that’s boosting productivity, improving public health, accelerating net zero, or supporting levelling up. If it can’t be linked to these priorities, it will struggle to gain traction.

5. Control the narrative
Data matters, but so does story. Policymakers respond to a clear, repeatable narrative. Be ready to explain your proposal in a single, compelling sentence – and repeat it until it becomes part of the Budget conversation.

The cost of waiting

The biggest mistake we see is organisations assuming there will be a later moment to act. In reality, the Autumn Budget is decided through a sequence of negotiations that begin months in advance. By September, most major decisions are already settled. By October, only minor tweaks are possible.

In practical terms, that means:

• If you’re not already talking to policymakers, you are behind.
  
• If you haven’t prepared your evidence, you will miss the Treasury’s internal deadlines.
  
• If you’re not part of the conversation now, you won’t be part of the outcome in November.
  

Waiting is not a neutral choice – it is an active decision to let others define the policy environment in which you operate.

What Walk Through Walls can do for you

Our team specialises in helping businesses and sectors navigate this exact process. We work across the influencing chain – from departmental policy leads to Treasury advisers, from backbench champions to national media. We understand the political, economic, and reputational levers that move Budget decisions.

We can:

• Map your risks and opportunities in the 2025 Budget cycle.
  
• Develop the evidence base for your ask or defence.
  
• Build political and media support that reinforces your case.
  
• Engage decision-makers directly, ensuring your voice is heard early enough to matter.
  

Whether you need to win a new measure or defend against a damaging proposal, we can help you get in front of the right people at the right time – with the right message.

The window is open

The Autumn Budget is not a spectator sport. It is a competitive process in which the prepared, the connected, and the persistent win. For 2025, the stakes are unusually high: a government under fiscal pressure, a Treasury looking for targeted savings and revenue, and industries facing both opportunity and threat.

Now is the moment to act. The door to influence is open – but it won’t stay open for long. Companies that start their campaigns today will have a seat at the table when decisions are made. Those who wait will find the menu already set.

If you have a Budget ask, a sector under threat, or simply want to understand how to position your business in the months ahead, Walk Through Walls can guide you through the process and help turn influence into results.