‘Better the Devil You Know’

The Australian election – and what it means for the UK

You could be forgiven for thinking that the Australian election was done and dusted last weekend. With Anthony Albanese declared Prime Minister, and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton conceding defeat (not to mention losing his own seat).

But no – not quite. Unlike the UK, full vote counting in Australia takes days not hours.

So 14 million votes, 7 days, one complex voting system and a new Pope later – we still don’t yet have the full and final seat results for the Federal election. 

But what we do know is it’s a big win for the incumbent Australian Labor Party. Bigger even than most polls predicted. And certainly greater than most would have expected just a few weeks ago – when polls and by-elections pointed towards a narrow win for the centre-right Liberal/National Coalition.

With an estimated swing of 2.7% to Labor, Australia’s ‘Second Preference’ voting system is set to deliver at least 91 seats for Labour against the Coalition’s 40 – with 9 seats still too close to call. Significantly increasing the Government’s majority in the House of Representatives.

So what’s gone down Down Under? And what does it mean for the UK?

Here are the toplines:

1. The Trump factor:

The backdrop of the Trump Presidency and his ‘tariff wars’ has loomed over all Western elections this year. This has created a more favourable backdrop for incumbent governments as voters lean towards stability and security – and centre-right parties become tainted by association, particularly on social issues.

But unlike Canada, where Trump and tariffs were a dominant theme, the issues driving Australian voters were more complex.

2. Albo Vs Dutton:

Even when Labor were behind in the polls, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese maintained a healthy lead over Peter Dutton as preferred Prime Minister.

With Albanese appearing on ‘politics-lite’ podcasts and enjoying almost ten times more followers on Instagram than his rival, Labor took full advantage of ‘Albo’s’ more natural, down-to-earth style.

The Liberals sought to bridge this gap and rally their base with amusing social media skits of Albanese as a Muppet-style puppet who can’t admit when he’s fallen off a stage. But when the incumbent’s personal ratings are 15+-points ahead of your own leader’s – any focus on personality only risks playing into this preference.

3. ‘It’s the economy, stupid. And don’t forget healthcare’:

Bill Clinton’s strategist James Carville coined this famous phrase during the 1992 US election – but many forget the second part. Anthony Albanese did not.

Prior to the campaign, the Liberals focused successfully on the impact high inflation and weak growth had had on Australians the past three years.

In response, Labor sought to neutralise their disadvantage on the issue of Cost of Living with a tax-cutting pre-election Budget. Then took every opportunity to shift the debate onto investment in Medicare – an issue on which Labor polls stronger.

Against Labor’s more wide-ranging and longer-term tax-cuts, the Liberals’ one-year 25 Cent cut in petrol duty – whilst undoubtedly popular in isolation – risked appearing a short-term gimmick.

4. Message and missteps:

The biggest puzzle of the election is why the Lib-Nat Coalition failed to capitalise on their previous success in maintaining a focus on the economy and cost of living.

Instead, they largely found themselves fighting the election on weaker territory.  Preferred Prime Minister, Medicare, and a distracting debate over the costs of nuclear power.

Crucially, the Liberals were unable to convert economic concerns into a compelling narrative for change. Perhaps relying too heavily on innate voter anger over the cost of living to carry them over the line. When instead this could have been relentlessly used as evidence for why the Coalition was better placed to secure the economy in the years ahead.

As a result, ‘Time for change’ became ‘better the devil you know’ in the mind of many voters.

5. And for the UK?

Alongside Mark Carney, the Australian election gives Keir Starmer another like-minded centre-left leader to work with on the world stage.

That should mean a positive dialogue on trade and security. But it won’t automatically mean Australia running towards a deeper Anglosphere-oriented economic partnership.

Albanese has been clear that he wants to maintain a more pragmatic approach towards relations with China – recognising the fact this economic relationship is now Australia’s most important.

More broadly, companies working in the renewables sector should benefit from the Labor Government’s energy plans.

The final takeaway from the Australian elections…

The record of a party in government matters – particularly as a proof-point for what voters should expect if they are re-elected – but ultimately elections are about the future. And opposition parties need to ensure they are speaking to this.

In the end, Labor were able to persuade voters that – despite the economic challenges of recent years – Anthony Albanese had proven he was the right person to take the country forward.